The Materials Trade

Wall Street is still unde

Copper just ripped +7% in a single week—during one of its weakest seasonal windows.

At the same time, the COPPER/USOIL ratio is up 143% since 2022—signaling a clear capital shift from oil to metals.

Bitcoin may lead the capital frontier—but copper is powering the AI foundation.

As AI spend shifts from code to concrete, materials could lead the next big trade.

Source: Mike Zaccardi

Disclaimer: The author(s) hold BTC and ETH at the time of writing (disclaimer).

Key Report Insights:

1. Copper is rerating: ATHs in weak seasonals signal reflexive demand

2. Software-fatigue trade: COPPER/IYW shows upside rotation potential

3. MP is policy-levered: Pentagon backing fuels rare earths upside

4. Lithium lagging, not broken: U.S. supply moves hint at a bottom

5. HPA is stealth torque: Tech-critical, tight supply, and underpriced

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1. AI & The Materials Rotation:

A. Hardware Primed For Rotation:

The FCX/SPX ratio sits near early 2021 lows—proof that materials remain underowned despite the AI boom.

As AI shifts from software to physical buildout—grids, fabs, hardware—materials could catch a reflexive bid.

Source: Jordi Visser

B. Copper & The AI Race:

The COPPER/IYW ratio has trended down since 2012, reflecting capital’s pivot from physical infrastructure to tech.

Even in the AI boom, money has chased software over hardware—yet copper is essential for data centers and grids.

As physical demand kicks in, that imbalance could snap back.

Source: TradingView

Want to position? Jump to Section 3 for the plays.