Exponential, Distilled

Exponential, Distilled

Thematic Research

The Google Trade

GOOGL outperforms Mag7 by 3×

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Exponential, Distilled and Max
Jan 14, 2026
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GOOGL is no longer trading as a “Search business”.

Since April, Google’s AI hardware ecosystem is up +124%, crushing AWS partners (+20%) and even NVIDIA’s supply chain (+82%).

This is a flows-driven re-rating toward Google as a full-stack AI compute platform—not an ad company.

We break down the key equities riding this rotation and how to position for 2026.

Has the younger generation surpassed the older one? The year-to-date gain  of the 'Google Chain' is nearly double that of the 'OpenAI Chain'.

Key Report Insights:

  1. GOOGL Rerates as AI Platform: +76%, Mag7 leader as Search risk unwinds

  2. Hardware Ecosystem Outperforms: Google-linked AI stack +124% equal-weight

  3. Gemini Flips the Narrative: Frontier models shift power away from pure AI labs

  4. TPUs Boom: Rising external adoption reframes Google as compute supplier


1. Google’s Rebound:

A. GOOG Leads Mag 7:

Google entered 2025 as the Mag 7 laggard, dragged by fears that generative AI would erode Search.

That view reversed decisively. GOOG rose +76%, beating NVDA (+39%) and the rest of the group (~+10%).

As execution improved, Search fears faded and attention shifted to Google’s end-to-end AI stack—custom silicon, infrastructure, and applications.

The market now values Google as an AI platform, not just an ad business.

Source: TradingView

B. Gemini 3.0, Frontier Model:

Gemini 3 Pro now tops the LM Arena benchmark, placing Google at the forefront of frontier model performance.

OpenAI’s GPT-5.1 High ranks closer to 8th, highlighting a clear shift in relative capability. The narrative has flipped.

Instead of GPT disrupting Google Search, the growing risk is Google’s vertically integrated AI stack pressuring standalone AI providers.

Source: LM Arena

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Analyst/Writer at Crypto, Distilled. Delivering crypto market insights through a quantitative lens.
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