Exponential, Distilled

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Exponential, Distilled
Robotics - The 2030 Trade?
Thematic Research

Robotics - The 2030 Trade?

The Next iPhone Moment... ($60T+ TAM)

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Michael Anwar
Apr 24, 2025
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Exponential, Distilled
Exponential, Distilled
Robotics - The 2030 Trade?
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Forget ChatGPT—robots are entering the real world.

Figure just raised $1.5B at a $40B valuation—while $TSLA and $NVIDIA quietly build and position ahead of the curve.

This isn’t theory—it’s the start of a $60T shift. Software ate the internet. Now machines are eating reality.

We’ve mapped 15+ liquid, public plays for those ready to front-run the shift.

Source: Morgan Stanley

Disclaimer: The author(s) hold BTC at the time of writing (see full disclaimer).

Key Report Insights:

  1. Factory First, Home Next: Factories lead today; homes unlock scale through daily use and app-driven adoption.

  2. Early-Stage Opportunity: Still fragmented with massive TAM—parallels to pre-boom AI in 2019.

  3. Supply Chain Flashpoint: U.S. builds the brains (LLMs); China controls the parts (actuators). Expect growing tension.

  4. Figure = 1st-Mover: $40B valuation. Native LLM + BMW integration makes it the leading bet on general-purpose robotics.

  5. Unitree’s Edge: At $16K, its humanoid is priced for consumers. Low cost + built-in apps create a viral flywheel for early mass adoption.

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A guest post by
Michael Anwar
Analyst at Exponential, Distilled. On a mission to explore the forefront of blockchain technology and translate complex innovations into educative insights.
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