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Exponential, Distilled
Own Bitcoin, But Smarter?
Thematic Research

Own Bitcoin, But Smarter?

BTC Treasuries Up 120% YoY

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Max
Jun 03, 2025
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BTC treasury stocks are up 120% over the past year—double BTC’s return.

Yet they hold just 3.6% of all BTC—less than half of spot ETF holdings.

As accumulation grows, so does reflexive upside—amplifying performance.

This week: 4 liquid BTC alternatives—and how to size them without overpaying.

Source: Chicken Genius

Note: The author(s) owns BTC and options positions in ETH (disclaimer).

Key Report Insights:

  1. Outperformance: BTC treasuries are up 120%+ YoY (which is 2x BTC)

  2. NAV Reflexivity: Fast BTC accumulation compresses NAV premiums.

  3. Metaplanet’s Edge: Small cap = faster BTC scaling and stronger reflexive upside.

  4. Strive Risk: Equity-funded buys = dilution until execution proves out.

  5. BTC > TSLA: Swapping BTC into Mag7 beats TSLA on return and volatility.


1. A Reflexive Trade In Motion:

A. BTC Treasuries Are Outrunning BTC:

BTC treasury stocks—MSTR, MTPLF, ASST, CEP—are up 120%+ YoY, doubling Bitcoin’s 55% return and beating equities.

ASST and CEP spiked on BTC pivot announcements, showing how narrative and balance sheet exposure drive reflexive upside.

In names like MSTR, investors are already pricing in future BTC buys—giving these stocks a forward-looking edge.

Source: TradingView

B. Big Run, Small Holdings:

Despite surging prices, public companies hold just 3.6% of BTC—less than IBIT and far below the 6.6% held by ETFs.

Institutional flows are still ETF-heavy, not equity-driven.

That gap shows BTC treasuries are early in adoption. Prices have moved—but positioning hasn’t, leaving room for asymmetric upside if conviction builds.

Source: BiTBO / BitcoinTreasuries.com

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