Japan: Buffett’s Last Big Trade

¥16.8T in buybacks. Still undervalued?

Japan’s equity story is flipping.

While U.S. tech unwinds, the Nikkei is up 2% and the TOPIX 6% YTD—outpacing the SPX and QQQ.

Foreign capital is returning. Retail cash is still parked. Valuations remain stuck near 2021 levels.

We unpack 10+ catalysts behind Japan’s bull run—and why Buffett’s final swing might be his boldest yet.

Source: Bloomberg

Note: The author(s) owns BTC and options positions in ETH (disclaimer).

Key Report Insights:

1. Healthy Inflation: 3 straight years of >2% inflation, reinforced by 5.37% Shunto wage hikes.

2. Earnings Strength: Aggregate EPS now rivals the S&P 500—leaner, more profitable than Europe

3. Deep Value, High Yield: Stocks near 2021 levels. Value leads, yields beat the U.S., buybacks hit ¥16.8T.

4. Light Positioning: Foreign outflows reversed in April. Japan is neutral, stable, and under-owned.

5. Policy Tailwind: The Fed cuts; the BoJ tightens. Japan is early-cycle—and primed to re-rate.

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