Exponential, Distilled

Exponential, Distilled

Portfolio Updates

Exponential Edge - #47

Advanced Packaging - The Next Memory?

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Michael Anwar's avatar
Exponential, Distilled and Michael Anwar
Jan 18, 2026
∙ Paid

Advanced packaging is becoming the next AI bottleneck.

TSMC’s CoWoS capacity is fully booked through 2026, capping supply just as AI compute demand continues to compound.

The imbalance between supply and demand forces diversification away from TSMC toward third-party packaging providers.

Below, we outline the key beneficiaries of the advanced-packaging surge, alongside opportunities in the defense sector.

Source: TrendForce

Key Report Insights:

  1. CoWoS Sold Out: 2026 capacity capped → forced demand spillover

  2. OSAT Rerating: AI volumes migrate to third-party packaging leaders

  3. CapEx Signal: $7B U.S. packaging build locks multi-year demand

  4. Tooling Torque: Packaging WFE mix doubles as volumes inflect

  5. Memory Analog: Supply lag + price power mirror early HBM cycle

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Michael Anwar
Analyst at Exponential, Distilled. On a mission to explore the forefront of blockchain technology and translate complex innovations into educative insights.
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