1. UBTech Robotics:
Our Take: A micro-cap (<$5B) humanoid robotics name riding China’s automation wave, but with significant geopolitical risks.
Key Insights:
$800M yuan in S2 orders YTD is meaningful for a company with a ~US$1–2B market cap range.
Stock +130% YTD suggests reflexive flows > fundamentals—creating optionality but increasing drawdown risk.
A. China’s Quiet Humanoid Breakout:
Chinese robotics is accelerating fast, led by Shenzhen-based UBTech — the first robotics firm to list in Hong Kong (2023).
The company claims over 800 million yuan (US$112M) in Walker S2 (a full-size humanoid rivaling Tesla Optimus) orders this year alone.
This week, it landed a fresh 159 million-yuan contract in Sichuan, its 2nd-largest after a 250 million-yuan deal in September.
Source: South China Morning Post
B. Real Robots or AGI Hype?
UBTech released a video this week showing what appears to be hundreds of Walker S2 humanoids marching in perfect formation.
The clip accompanied an announcement that the company has already delivered units nationwide for industrial deployment.
The clip instantly went viral, but also triggered skepticism: Figure’s CEO Brett Adcock called the footage CGI, questioning whether such scale is actually real.
C. Momentum Turns Into Mania:
UBTech’s surging sales have triggered a speculative stampede, sending the stock up 130%+ YTD.
Citi and JPM both issued buy ratings in September, further fueling the momentum cycle and drawing even more traders into the frenzy.
2. Xpeng:
Our Take: A fast-growing but unprofitable EV–robotics player with big autonomy ambitions backed by Alibaba.
Key Insights:
Revenue momentum is real: Q2 revenue reached RMB 18.27B (+125% YoY, +16% QoQ), but profitability remains out of reach.
Autonomy optionality is long-dated: Robotaxi trials in 2026 create a multi-year upside option while cash burn stays the key near-term risk.
Source: Yahoo Finance
A. Xpeng’s Leap Into the Robotics:
Xpeng, one of China’s top EV makers, is accelerating into robotics with the debut of its new humanoid robot “IRON.”
The strategy mirrors Tesla as Xpeng pushes beyond cars into robotics, repositioning itself as a broader tech player.
With China’s massive vehicle TAM and inner city riders upgrading from bikes to EVs, the upside extends well beyond its core auto business.
Xpeng publicly unveiled IRON in Guangzhou on Nov 5, 2025:
Source: CNBC | Evelyn Cheng
B. Delivering Robotaxis With Alibaba:
Xpeng also used its AI Day to announce three upcoming robotaxi models, marking a major expansion of its autonomous ambitions.
Alibaba joined the push through a new partnership between Xpeng and its mapping arm AutoNavi.
Xpeng said trials for the self-developed robotaxis will begin in 2026.
Source: GlobalNewswire
C. Xpeng Grows Fast But Still Bleeds:
Xpeng’s latest results show rapid revenue growth and improving margins, even as the company remains unprofitable.
It posted record quarterly revenue of RMB $18.27B (USD $2.55B) in Q2 2025, up 125% YoY-on-year and 16% QoQ on the back of strong vehicle deliveries.
The company will report Q3 2025 financials on November 17.
Source: CnevPost
3. Samsung:
Our Take: A major memory player with AI-driven upside—if it executes, Samsung could be the next rotation after SK Hynix.
Key Insights:
AI demand is tightening supply: DDR5 prices are up ~60% since September, reflecting strong data-center pull.
Momentum is building: Samsung is up 80%+ YTD on rising AI orders and expected HBM3E growth into 2025.
A. Samsung Fights Its Way Back Into AI:
Samsung is regaining momentum after lagging in the early AI wave.
The company recently signed a major deal with OpenAI to supply DRAM memory for the USD 500B Stargate data-center project in the US.
Its shares have climbed more than 80% this year as investors bet this partnership and the broader memory boom will pull Samsung back into AI leadership.
Source: Yahoo Finance
B. The Memory Squeeze:
Samsung has raised prices on key memory chips as AI data centers drain global supply, sending some DDR5 products up almost 60% since September.
DDR5 is critical for AI because large models need fast, high-bandwidth memory to keep GPUs fed without bottlenecks.
The chart below shows how DDR5 prices stayed flat for over a year before surging sharply in late 2025:
Credit: PCPartPicker
C. Samsung Is Betting On The “Older” Chip:
HBM is a type of ultra-fast memory that feeds data to AI chips. Think of it as the fuel line that keeps GPUs running at full speed.
Samsung’s newest version, HBM4, isn’t producing well yet (low yields), meaning it’s expensive and not very profitable for now.
So instead of relying on it, Samsung is doubling down on HBM3E, the slightly older but far more reliable version.
HBM3E still powers today’s AI data centers, and Samsung sells it for about 30% less than SK Hynix, which helps them win major customers while HBM4 improves.
Source: Jukan (X)
4. Portfolio Update:
A. Overview:
Our portfolio remains ahead of all major benchmarks:
+31% absolute
+49% vs BTC
+19% vs QQQ