Exponential Edge - #3
China's AI Push, US Stumbles
The author(s) own BTC at the time of writing (disclaimer).
1. Market Overview:
A. Market Jitters: Recession Fears
NASDAQ and BTC have dropped 10.4% and 13.23% YTD as recession fears grow.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warns of a market "detox" due to government spending cuts, signaling short-term pain ahead.
JPMorgan still expects slow GDP growth, but a full-blown trade war could upend markets.
Source: Geiger Capital
B. Crypto’s Quiet Strength: Apps Outpace Infra
Despite bearish sentiment, crypto fundamentals remain strong.
Application revenues are still double 2024 levels, signaling growing adoption even after January’s selloff.
Stablecoin protocols drive most revenue, while memecoin & DEX trading sustain market momentum.
Crypto apps are now out-earning infrastructure—if adoption continues, the next mania could center on applications, not protocols.
Source: Blockworks Research on X
C. The State Of DeFi:
DeFi tokens remain ~76% below their highs, mirroring broader market declines.
Yet, on-chain metrics tell a different story—TVL has surged to $88B (+62.4%) since 2024, while stablecoin supply hit $228.3B (+75.6%).
With DeFi mindshare near 12-month highs, are investors returning to utility?
Key catalysts include easing regulations, enabling token value accrual via buybacks and revenue sharing.
Source: Kaito AI
D. Altcoin Struggles: No BTC Rotation This Cycle
Altcoins lag as liquidity thins and capital spreads across an oversaturated market.
Meanwhile, BTC’s institutional adoption (ETFs, SBR) has broken the usual BTC → altcoin rotation.
OTHERS dominance (altcoins ranked 11-125) keeps grinding lower, with only brief outperformance.
Until macro conditions improve, risk-off sentiment will likely keep altcoins under pressure.
E. Zoom Out: Fear Fades, Opportunity Lasts
Market panic is nothing new—double-digit drops have happened before, yet patience keeps paying off.
Smart investors use slow periods for deep research, positioning for the next wave.
As we enter the exponential age of AI, robotics, and deep space, staying ahead means cutting through the noise. We’re here to help.
Source: Jordi Visser on X
F. Key Report Insights:
US-China Tech Race: Chinese tech stocks are up ~40% YTD, closing the gap with US firms.
Tokenomics Overhaul: A top Web3 AI project is revamping tokenomics, letting holders allocate $1.8M in daily emissions.
Economic Uncertainty: Stock market surges, but growth stagnates—Trump’s tariffs could hit exports by 40%.
Social IPO: A gaming platform with 200M users and $600M revenue eyes a public debut.
AI Infra Expansion: A major AI cloud computing firm is set for a 2025 IPO at a $35B valuation.
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