Exponential Edge - #2

Crypto, Nuclear Stocks & OpenAI

The author(s) own BTC at the time of writing (disclaimer).

1. Market Overview:

A. BTC Tracking Global Liquidity:

BTC has bucked its usual Q1 trend, posting losses instead of the ~50% gains seen historically. The culprit? Global liquidity.

BTC lags M2 supply by ~4 months, suggesting a potential rally around May 2025.

Until then, expect sideways action while altcoins struggle in a tight liquidity environment.

B. Momentum Stocks Are Unwinding:

Momentum stocks, led by tech giants like the Mag7, soared in 2024 but are now flashing red—often a precursor to reversals.

While history suggests more upside is possible, the Mag7 are already down ~9.75% in 2025, struggling to meet lofty growth expectations.

Meanwhile, China’s rising tech scene, with players like DeepSeek, adds pressure to U.S. markets.

Source: Morgan Stanley

C. Recession Risks Looms:

The Atlanta Fed now projects U.S. GDP at -2.8%, a sharp drop from last month’s +4% estimate.

Economic uncertainty, Trump’s tariff agenda, and three-year-low consumer sentiment fuel recession fears.

Trade wars could drive up prices and curb spending, though this volatile indicator can shift quickly with new data.

Source: Reuters

D. Anthropic’s $61.5B Valuation Boom:

Anthropic just secured $3.5B in Series E funding, pushing its valuation to $61.5B.

The raise follows the launch of Claude Sonnet 3.7, a ‘hybrid’ AI model balancing speed and depth.

Meanwhile, OpenAI is eyeing an even bigger round, targeting a $300B valuation—escalating the AI battle.

Source: CrunchBase