Exponential, Distilled

Exponential, Distilled

Thematic Research

Defense Supercycle

Quiet +77% YTD run. Still early?

Exponential, Distilled's avatar
Max's avatar
Exponential, Distilled
and
Max
Jul 01, 2025
∙ Paid
2
Share

EU defense budgets just surged +50% YoY, triggering a +77% rally in EUAD.

Meanwhile, U.S. defense remains politically capped and structurally underweight.

With NATO’s 5% target and Germany’s €500B push, capital is rotating heavily into European defense.

Past Report Spotlight:

  • Nuclear popped +56.5% after our Q2 call—before defense even moved.

  • Why? We saw rearmament driving demand for sovereign energy first.

  • Now defense is up +77% YTD. This is the same trade.

Disclaimer: The author(s) hold BTC and ETH at the time of writing (disclaimer).

Key Report Insights:

  1. Europe Leads: EUAD up +77% as regional budgets surge +50% YoY

  2. Capital Cycle Reset: NATO targets 5% GDP spend by 2035

  3. U.S. Left Behind: S&P defense exposure remains structurally underweight

  4. Froth Alert: Select EU names now trade richer than tech/luxury

  5. Output Bottleneck: U.S. labor shortages threaten delivery timelines

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
Max's avatar
A guest post by
Max
Analyst/Writer at Crypto, Distilled. Delivering crypto market insights through a quantitative lens.
Subscribe to Max
© 2025 Crypto, Distilled
Publisher Terms
Substack
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture