NVIDIA’s CPO shift confirms value is moving deeper into optics, memory, and semicap tools.

This is a positioning call on suppliers with pricing power and volume leverage. We break down the tickers best set up to rerate.

Key Report Insights:

1. Global Rotation: $65B/week flows ex-U.S.; EM AI rerates at ~10x forward P/E

2. Optics Inflection: NVIDIA embeds CPO; lasers move inside the chip stack

3. Edge Expansion: FPGA attach rates double; ASPs rise with server content

4. CapEx Flywheel: AI spend +73% YoY; WFE pricing power tightens

5. Process Intensity: HBM + advanced packaging drive >20% semis growth guide

1. Market Overview:

A. The Emerging Premium:

Global equity allocations to U.S. stocks have fallen to 26%, down sharply from their 92% peak in 2022.

Capital is rotating internationally, with global funds absorbing ~$65B per week into ex-U.S. equities.

Emerging markets are key beneficiaries — offering AI-linked exposure at materially lower valuations than U.S. peers.

South Korea is a case in point: up +159% YoY on memory momentum, yet still trading at ~10x forward earnings.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X

B. Concentration Is No More:

The S&P 500 is trapped in a 3.7% two-month range — one of the tightest compressions on record.

Beneath the surface, dispersion is extreme: single stocks are realizing ~25 volatility points above the index, near historic highs.

Leadership is bifurcated. AI hardware — tools, power, infrastructure — drives upside. AI disruption fears pressure software on the downside.

Source: Daily Chartbook on X

2. Lattice Semiconductors (LSCC):

A. AI Goes On Edge:

LLMs today are cloud-dependent, anchored to centralized data centers. But distilled models now deliver good-enough performance on device.

As AI expands into agents, humanoids, and FSD — where latency and privacy matter — the world shifts to a hybrid cloud-edge stack.

Source: CSEM

B. Lattice - The Bedrock of Edge AI:

We added Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) to our mock portfolio on Oct 23, 2025 — it’s up +41.1% since.

LSCC specializes in FPGAs — programmable chips that create custom data paths tailored to specific workloads.

These are critical for edge AI, where compute is constrained and efficient, low-latency data flow matters.

With exposure spanning GPUs, vision systems, robotics, and wearables — and a +60%FPGA portfolio expansion in 2025 — LSCC sits squarely at the center of edge adoption.

Source: Lattice Semiconductors

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With ~$700B in 2026 hyperscaler CapEx anchoring demand, flows could likely rotate back toward NVDA ahead of their Q4 earnings later this month.

Stay to the end for our public portfolio update, now up +45% since July.

Key Report Insights:

1. Rotation Exhausting: Small caps lead as MegaCap CapEx fears peak

2. Leader Discount: NVDA trails SOX ~30% despite stronger fundamentals

3. CapEx Floor: $660B hyperscaler spend locks silicon demand

4. Brazil Rerating: Rare-earth flows turning EM into AI infrastructure play

5. Memory Squeeze: DRAM/NAND +90%; shortages extend toward 2028

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This dislocation is creating asymmetric setups among mispriced software survivors, which we outline in this report.

We also highlight emerging energy opportunities and a hidden Western-listed proxy for ByteDance’s AI-driven growth in China.

Stay through to the end for key public portfolio updates — now up +23.5% vs QQQ since July 2025.

Key Report Insights:

1. AI Repricing Shock: Software de-rating opens selective alpha

2. Earnings Reality: 79% SPX beats reinforce profit-driven bid

3. Policy Torque: $12B uranium stockpile shifts supply dynamics

4. Vertical Integration: CCJ captures fuel → reactor value chain

5. CapEx Supercycle: China + Western hyperscaler spending drives AI infra

1. Market Overview:

A. The Emerging Market Leaders:

Emerging markets are gaining momentum into 2026, outperforming developed peers as commodity scarcity and earnings inflection drive returns.

YTD leaders include South Korea — powered by semiconductor and memory strength — and Brazil, led by energy and base metals.

Source: Mike Zaccardi on X

B. It’s Earnings Season:

Despite elevated volatility, the S&P 500 remains positive (+1.91% YTD) as earnings season gains momentum.

So far, 79% of companies have beaten estimates — reinforcing the rally with tangible profit strength rather than sentiment alone.

Source: Duality Research

2. Software:

A. The Software Reversion:

Software has underperformed QQQ over the past year and is down another 17% YTD as AI pressures market share and compresses margins.

Tools like Claude Code are commoditizing coding, enabling non-technical users to build without deep expertise.

Despite valid concerns, depressed valuations may create mean-reversion opportunities among companies still delivering solid growth.

B. Long Expertise, Short Enterprise:

Catching a software bottom is high risk; a long/short approach offers better risk-adjusted exposure.

• Long: ADBE — GenAI acts as a complement to its creator ecosystem, positioning AI as an upgrade rather than a replacement. Growth remains intact: Q4 2025 revenue hit a record $6.19B (+10% YoY), FY2025 cash flow exceeded $10B, and forward P/E sits at 11.55.

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The trade is shifting from software narratives into real-world scarcity—metals, power, and hardware are the new choke points.

Stay to the end for our mock portfolio update: +44% since inception, with our top position up nearly 3x in six months.

Key Report Insights:

• AI Scarcity Trade: Metals + power replace software as the bottleneck

• Copper Breakout: +38% YoY as grids + data centers drive a new supercycle

• 2026 Supply Shock: Nickel cuts + aluminum shortages tighten fast

• AMD’s Nvidia Moment: Helios + MI500 ramp set up the next rerate

• Privacy Token Surge: +430% leaders as regulation ignites Cypherpunk 2.0

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With $7T in household deposits coming due and AI momentum accelerating, China tech and semis are setting up for a major rerating.

We break down the key tickers best positioned for the upside (+ other hot sectors).

Key Report Insights:

1. Breadth Rotation: Mag7 fades as scarcity sectors take leadership

2. China Breakout: CSI 300 clears decade highs; AI bid returns

3. BABA Proxy: Commerce + AI cloud rerating driven by Qwen scale

4. InP Choke Point: Export controls tighten optics supply chain

5. EDA Upshift: AI chip complexity drives structural spend per design

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TSMC’s CoWoS capacity is fully booked through 2026, capping supply just as AI compute demand continues to compound.

The imbalance between supply and demand forces diversification away from TSMC toward third-party packaging providers.

Below, we outline the key beneficiaries of the advanced-packaging surge, alongside opportunities in the defense sector.

Source: TrendForce

Key Report Insights:

1. CoWoS Sold Out: 2026 capacity capped → forced demand spillover

2. OSAT Rerating: AI volumes migrate to third-party packaging leaders

3. CapEx Signal: $7B U.S. packaging build locks multi-year demand

4. Tooling Torque: Packaging WFE mix doubles as volumes inflect

5. Memory Analog: Supply lag + price power mirror early HBM cycle

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After outperforming BTC by 63% and QQQ by 26% in six months, we’re doubling down on our investment strategy heading into 2026 (details at the end of report).

Key Report Insights:

1. BCOM Flow Shock: ~$1.9B passive cocoa buying hits crowded shorts.

2. Oil Positioning Trap: Record shorts turn supply noise into squeeze fuel.

3. Post-GLP-1 Rerate: GalNAc-siRNA shifts obesity to fat loss + muscle gain.

4. AI Waste Cycle: CapEx today = recycler earnings with a 4-yr lag.

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Google’s TPUs are the clearest example, now powering a growing share of its internal AI workloads.

Broadcom (AVGO) sits at the choke point of this shift, supplying the custom silicon and interconnect that make these systems scale.

The chart below shows the payoff, with Broadcom’s free cash flow compounding from roughly $4.4B to $7.5B in just 18 months.

Source: Daniel on X

Key Report Insights:

1. TPU Rotation: Hyperscalers shift spend from GPUs to in-house ASICs as Google TPUs scale AI workloads.

2. AVGO Chokepoint: Citi projects Broadcom’s ASIC revenue up ~150% and ~98% over the next 2 years.

3. Cash Flow Proof: AVGO FCF compounds from ~$4.4B to ~$7.5B in 18 months as AI spend converts to cash

4. Copper Torque: Copper-to-aluminum pair is up ~20% YTD as data-center buildouts re-rate physical demand.

5. Edge AI Inflects: Smartphones outperform PCs, with AAPL + Samsung up ~125% YoY while HPQ, DELL, CRSR, Lenovo remain flat.

1. Market Overview:

A. The Midterm Turn:

Midterm years are historically the weakest phase of the presidential cycle, with average drawdowns around ~18%.

But the signal isn’t the decline—it’s what follows.

Across cycles, 1-year returns from midterm lows have been consistently positive, suggesting that sell-offs in this window have tended to mark accumulation zones.

Source: Ryan Detrick on X

B. AI Is Going Global:

~94% of the MSCI ACWI now trades above its 200-day moving average—signaling broad, synchronized strength across global markets.

This isn’t a U.S.-only AI rally.

Korea anchors memory, Japan supplies robotics components, and regional specialization is pulling global indices higher as the AI supply chain scales worldwide.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X

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In this report, we explore the ongoing palladium trade, a potential value play in GLP-1s, and an underrated Mag7 company heading into 2026.

Key Report Insights:

1. Risk-On Fully Priced: Sentiment stretched, cash at cycle lows → reflexive upside

2. Palladium Mispricing: +104% YTD yet still −13% since 2020 → catch-up setup

3. Industrial Confirmation: Copper uptrend validates cyclical metals rotation

4. TSLA Leadership: One of three Mag7 names beating SPX into year-end

5. AV Data Edge: TSLA 6.8B FSD miles vs Waymo 100M → widening moat

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Credit stress is weighing on Oracle, while attention and early flows are building around a potential SpaceX IPO.

Stay to the end for the latest public portfolio update—still holding strong, up +26% since mid-July.

Source: Stock Savvy Shay on X

Key Report Insights:

1. Commodity rotation broadens beyond gold into silver and copper at ATHs

2. SpaceX IPO reflexivity builds ahead of a potential $1.5T, $30B raise

3. Oracle credit stress surfaces as leverage spikes and CDS widen to 150bps

4. OpenAI concentration ties $300B+ of Oracle backlog to one counterparty

5. Natural gas flips structural as AI and LNG lock in baseload demand

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A. The Glass Behind AI:

Corning (GLW) quietly crossed our radar recently. Chances are, you haven’t heard of it. We hadn’t either.

Yet the stock is up roughly 75% in the past six months and is now closing in on a $100B market cap.

GLW is a materials science player with differentiated glass used across TVs, devices and increasingly the physical backbone of AI itself: optical fiber.

We recently laid out why optical hardware is becoming a critical bottleneck in the AI stack. GLW sits directly in that path.

B. Glass Thinner Than Human Hair:

What looks like a “boring glass stock” is really a proxy for optical hardware. Specifically, telecommunications-grade optical fiber.

Nearly 2 billion people access the internet simultaneously through strands of glass thinner than a human hair.

This material is not just thin. It is extraordinarily pure, flexible, and durable. Those properties are non-negotiable at global scale.

Corning invented the three-part OVD process that converts raw chemical inputs into ultra-pure, high-performance optical fiber.

Source: Wired

C. AI Demand, Quantified:

In Q3 2025, Corning’s core revenue came in at $4.27B, up 14% YoY and ahead of company guidance.

However, the strength is concentrated. Optical Communications revenue climbed 33% on rising AI-related network demand.

Source: Corning

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TPU adoption, Gemini gains, and surging downloads are pulling capital flows into the Google ecosystem.

Since the start of Q4 2025, Google-linked equities have massively outperformed OpenAI-linked names, as shown below.

The question now: do these lines converge again, or does Google’s outperformance persist?

Source: 22V Research

Key Report Insights:

1. Gas Rerating: Spot gas hits $5 on tightening supply and export flow

2. Google TPU Surge: External TPU sales intensify pressure on NVDA GPUs

3. OpenAI Code Red: Altman orders quality overhaul as Gemini closes gap

4. Intel Sovereign Bid: $8.9B U.S. stake resets foundry as TSMC hedge

5. Silver Breakout: +102% YTD and clean ATH breach signals supercycle torque

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Investors are starting to move out of memory stocks and into optics, as AI connectivity becomes the next major bottleneck.

At the same time, quiet quantum advances are introducing genuine crypto tail risks, pushing investors toward early hedges like $ZEC.

This report lays out the trades set to benefit, from AI optics to quantum-safe assets.

Key Report Insights:

1. Google rerates as BRK flows and TPU demand tighten the AI spread

2. Optics inflect with 124 GW compute driving fiber over copper

3. Quantum lifts as hyperscalers record 13,000× performance gains

4. BTC vulnerable with quantum tail risk pushing hedge rotation

5. Index overhang puts MSTR at risk of multi-billion outflows

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With AI leaders wobbling and software resetting, the market’s rotation is widening.

The XLV/QQQ chart below shows healthcare’s clear outperformance.

Key Report Insights:

1. Fear Extreme Trigger: BTC <100K sets up reflexive bounce window

2. Cloud Capacity Break: CapEx -40% signals power-grid choke point

3. Pharma Flow Shift: XBI outperforms as GLP-1 demand & AI R&D accelerate

4. Software Re-Pricing: Legacy creative name at 13.6× PE after AI moat hit

5. Buyback Torque: $8.4B repurchases left; acceleration supports rerating

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Our Take: A micro-cap (<$5B) humanoid robotics name riding China’s automation wave, but with significant geopolitical risks.

Key Insights:

• $800M yuan in S2 orders YTD is meaningful for a company with a ~US$1–2B market cap range.

• Stock +130% YTD suggests reflexive flows > fundamentals—creating optionality but increasing drawdown risk.

A. China’s Quiet Humanoid Breakout:

Chinese robotics is accelerating fast, led by Shenzhen-based UBTech — the first robotics firm to list in Hong Kong (2023).

The company claims over 800 million yuan (US$112M) in Walker S2 (a full-size humanoid rivaling Tesla Optimus) orders this year alone.

This week, it landed a fresh 159 million-yuan contract in Sichuan, its 2nd-largest after a 250 million-yuan deal in September.

Source: South China Morning Post

B. Real Robots or AGI Hype?

UBTech released a video this week showing what appears to be hundreds of Walker S2 humanoids marching in perfect formation.

The clip accompanied an announcement that the company has already delivered units nationwide for industrial deployment.

The clip instantly went viral, but also triggered skepticism: Figure’s CEO Brett Adcock called the footage CGI, questioning whether such scale is actually real.

C. Momentum Turns Into Mania:

UBTech’s surging sales have triggered a speculative stampede, sending the stock up 130%+ YTD.

Citi and JPM both issued buy ratings in September, further fueling the momentum cycle and drawing even more traders into the frenzy.

2. Xpeng:

Our Take: A fast-growing but unprofitable EV–robotics player with big autonomy ambitions backed by Alibaba.

Key Insights:

• Revenue momentum is real: Q2 revenue reached RMB 18.27B (+125% YoY, +16% QoQ), but profitability remains out of reach.

• Autonomy optionality is long-dated: Robotaxi trials in 2026 create a multi-year upside option while cash burn stays the key near-term risk.

Source: Yahoo Finance

A. Xpeng’s Leap Into the Robotics:

Xpeng, one of China’s top EV makers, is accelerating into robotics with the debut of its new humanoid robot “IRON.”

The strategy mirrors Tesla as Xpeng pushes beyond cars into robotics, repositioning itself as a broader tech player.

With China’s massive vehicle TAM and inner city riders upgrading from bikes to EVs, the upside extends well beyond its core auto business.

Xpeng publicly unveiled IRON in Guangzhou on Nov 5, 2025:

Source: CNBC | Evelyn Cheng

B. Delivering Robotaxis With Alibaba:

Xpeng also used its AI Day to announce three upcoming robotaxi models, marking a major expansion of its autonomous ambitions.

Alibaba joined the push through a new partnership between Xpeng and its mapping arm AutoNavi.

Xpeng said trials for the self-developed robotaxis will begin in 2026.

Source: GlobalNewswire

C. Xpeng Grows Fast But Still Bleeds:

Xpeng’s latest results show rapid revenue growth and improving margins, even as the company remains unprofitable.

It posted record quarterly revenue of RMB $18.27B (USD $2.55B) in Q2 2025, up 125% YoY-on-year and 16% QoQ on the back of strong vehicle deliveries.

The company will report Q3 2025 financials on November 17.

Source: CnevPost

3. Samsung:

Our Take: A major memory player with AI-driven upside—if it executes, Samsung could be the next rotation after SK Hynix.

Key Insights:

• AI demand is tightening supply: DDR5 prices are up ~60% since September, reflecting strong data-center pull.

• Momentum is building: Samsung is up 80%+ YTD on rising AI orders and expected HBM3E growth into 2025.

A. Samsung Fights Its Way Back Into AI:

Samsung is regaining momentum after lagging in the early AI wave.

The company recently signed a major deal with OpenAI to supply DRAM memory for the USD 500B Stargate data-center project in the US.

Its shares have climbed more than 80% this year as investors bet this partnership and the broader memory boom will pull Samsung back into AI leadership.

Source: Yahoo Finance

B. The Memory Squeeze:

Samsung has raised prices on key memory chips as AI data centers drain global supply, sending some DDR5 products up almost 60% since September.

DDR5 is critical for AI because large models need fast, high-bandwidth memory to keep GPUs fed without bottlenecks.

The chart below shows how DDR5 prices stayed flat for over a year before surging sharply in late 2025:

Credit: PCPartPicker

C. Samsung Is Betting On The “Older” Chip:

HBM is a type of ultra-fast memory that feeds data to AI chips. Think of it as the fuel line that keeps GPUs running at full speed.

Samsung’s newest version, HBM4, isn’t producing well yet (low yields), meaning it’s expensive and not very profitable for now.

So instead of relying on it, Samsung is doubling down on HBM3E, the slightly older but far more reliable version.

HBM3E still powers today’s AI data centers, and Samsung sells it for about 30% less than SK Hynix, which helps them win major customers while HBM4 improves.

Source: Jukan (X)

4. Portfolio Update:

A. Overview:

Our portfolio remains ahead of all major benchmarks:

• +31% absolute

• +49% vs BTC

• +19% vs QQQ

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Meanwhile, a single semis supplier still owns 100% of the EUV market—the choke point for every advanced chip made today.

Source: Naval

Key Report Insights:

1. ZEC Leads: +750% vs BTC since Sept, reflexive privacy bid

2. HBM Bottleneck: ASML = sole EUV supplier, pure memory leverage

3. Copper Breakout: New highs signal global growth rotation

4. DAT Compression: mNAVs <1, momentum only in BMNR + MSTR

5. OpenAI IPO Torque: MSFT + SoftBank = cleanest equity proxies

Stay to the end for our portfolio update (+41% vs BTC since July 2025).

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Batteries are becoming the quiet backbone of the AI boom, bridging renewables and round-the-clock energy use.

Source: Rohan Paul

Key Report Insights:

1. Energy Flows Rising: Trump sanctions + DoE refills trigger oil rotation.

2. AMD’s Rerating: OpenAI’s 160M warrants reprice AMD into AI infra play.

3. Gold Overcrowded: $4.3K top → -7% pullback; miners’ FCF still compounding.

4. China Battery Torque: 36.8% share; policy doubling capacity by 2027.

5. U.S. Grid Play: EOSE 10× YoY revs, 90% domestic, $18.8B pipeline.

Stay to the end for our portfolio update (+34% vs BTC since July 2025).

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We built it so you can follow our portfolio in real time, without having to wait for the next Substack update.

It’s the same dashboard we’ve used internally to track our portfolio — up 38% vs BTC since July 2025 — now open to you.

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From semiconductors to cloud stocks, we’re in the early innings of an AI super cycle reshaping global markets.

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Meanwhile, Hang Seng Tech is approaching 3-yr highs - with 2 large cap tech names dominating China’s AI narrative.

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